Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Forget market timing, buying a house is about life timing

Homes are a long-term investment
By Garry Marr, Financial Post June 9, 2010 'You know, you're making the biggest mistake of your life. The housing market is going to fall."

I got this great piece of advice from another journalist at the Financial Post, who has since left the newspaper, after buying my first home. Not exactly the type of thing you want to hear after taking on huge debt and making the biggest financial decision of your life.

Lucky for me, I didn't heed that advice about Toronto's red-hot real estate market -- in 1998. I'm not going to say I made a shrewd business decision 12 years ago, or even six years later when I bought a larger house.

For me, it wasn't a case of not following what turned out to be bad advice from a fellow business journalist. Nor was it about trying to time the market.

I was simply following the same pattern as most Canadians: I got married and decided to stop renting and buy something. Later came the need for a bigger home when the second kid was on the way.

Which brings us to today. The supply of housing is rising fast as people try to list their homes for sale before the market "crashes." This is happening at the same time that demand is starting to wane. Economists and even the real estate industry, are all predicting a correction -- the only argument being how severe it will be.

So, the question for anyone buying is: should you wait?

Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21 Canada, thinks the strategy of waiting for a crash is not going to work during this economic cycle. "For a market to crash, you have to have people who are desperate to sell," says Mr. Lawby. "People will [only sell] if they can't afford their mortgage or they don't have a job." He doesn't see a decline in prices, "unless you are predicting that mortgages will renew at a hefty premium -- which is not the case -- or a whole bunch of people are going to lose their jobs." Mr. Lawby believes neither will happen.

And, he adds, you are really into a risky game if you are timing the market. "A house is a home. If all you are doing is looking at it as an investment -- that's what happened the last 15 years -- it's not just that. It's a place to live and a place to raise a family," says Mr. Lawby. Even Benjamin Tal, a senior economist with CIBC World Markets, who, last month, said in a report that Canadian housing is 14% overvalued, has doubts about playing the market. But he suspects that's exactly what some Canadians will do.

"Is there a sense that prices will go down and people will wait? I think it might be an issue," says Mr. Tal. "It won't be the main reason [people don't buy], but it will happen at the margins. The fact that people sell at the peak and wait to buy is a normally functioning market."

But even if you do make the right call on housing prices, it could end up backfiring on you in other ways. For example, if interest rates rise fast enough, any gains you make on price could be erased by interest charges, says Mr. Tal. Edmonton certified financial planner Al Nagy says you need to think of your house the way you think about any long-term investment. "Whether it's an investment for use in your retirement or a house to live in, it's a long-term thing. The timing becomes less critical than it would be if it is a speculative [investment]."

And he says making a call on the housing market is as tricky as any other investment call. "It's very rare you catch the bottom. You can't let the market dictate when it's time to buy. The time to buy is when you can afford it," says Mr. Nagy.

I'm not sure that philosophy would fly with my former colleague, but the problem with timing the market is: what if your timing is off?

Source: The Vancouver Sun

May market offers buyers greater selection

The number of properties listed for sale in Greater Vancouver continued to rise in May, while the number of sales showed a year-over-year decrease.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,156 in May 2010, a decline of 10.4 per cent compared to the 3,524 sales in May 2009; 5.1 per cent more than the 3,002 sales in May 2008; and 27.1 per cent less than the 4,331 sales in May 2007. May 2010 sales also represent a 10.1 per cent decline compared to last month’s sales.
In terms of number of property listings, last month marked the third consecutive month during which more than 7,000 homes were listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 7,014 in May 2010, a 48.2 per cent increase compared to May 2009 when 4,733 new units were listed, and an 8.3 per cent decline compared to April 2010 when 7,648 properties were added to the MLS®.
At 17,492, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 10 per cent in May compared to last month, and is up 28.2 per cent compared to this time last year.
Prospective home buyers in today’s market have a broad selection to choose from in every property type. Buyers are not feeling as rushed to make a decision as they did late last year and earlier in the year.
Over the last 12 months, the overall MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 16.7 per cent to $590,662 from $506,201 in May 2009.
“It’s important for those looking to buy or sell a home to remember that real estate is local and wise real estate decisions are made by those who understand current market conditions at the neighbourhood level.
Sales of detached properties in May 2010 reached 1,256, a decrease of 10.4 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in May 2009 and a 4.4 per cent increase from the 1,203 units sold in May 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 19.1 per cent from May 2009 to $810,175.
Sales of apartment properties reached 1,354 in May 2010, a decline of 7.1 per cent compared to the 1,458 sales in May 2009 and an increase of 8.8 per cent compared to the 1,244 sales in May 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 13.9 per cent from May 2009 to $398,783.
Attached property sales in May 2010 totalled 546, a decline of 17.8 per cent compared to the 664 sales in May 2009 and a 1.6 per cent decline from the 555 attached properties sold in May 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 14.8 per cent between May 2009 and 2010 to $500,339

Source The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Home buyer and seller activity increases in busy spring market

The Greater Vancouver housing market experienced increased activity in April thanks to a steady balance of home buyers and sellers entering the marketplace.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,512 in April 2010, the fifth highest-selling April on record. The figure represents an increase of 18.5 per cent compared to the 2,963 sales in April 2009; 9.1 per cent more than April 2008’s 3,218 sales; and 3.7 per cent more than April 2007’s 3,387 sales. April 2010 sales also represent a 12 per cent increase compared to last month.
We’re in the midst of another strong spring season thanks to high levels of activity on both the buyer and seller side of our market. “The number of homes coming on the market has increased significantly in recent months, which is providing a healthy level of choice for those looking to buy during this busy period.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 7,648 in April 2010, a 64.5 per cent increase compared to April 2009 when 4,649 new units were listed, and a 9.2 per cent increase compared to March 2010 when 7,004 properties were added to the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®).
At 15,901, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 17 per cent in April compared to last month, and is up 11 per cent compared to this time last year.
Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 18.9 per cent to $593,419 from $499,021 in April 2009.
It was at this time last year when home prices in our region began their recovery from the declines that occurred during the recession period.
Sales of detached properties in April 2010 reached 1,370, an increase of 15.1 per cent from the 1,190 detached sales recorded in April 2009 and a six per cent increase from the 1,293 units sold in April 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 21.2 per cent from April 2009 to $818,403.
Sales of apartment properties reached 1,526 in April 2010, an increase of 29.4 per cent compared to the 1,179 sales in April 2009 and an increase of 15.9 per cent compared to the 1,317 sales in April 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 16.9 per cent from April 2009 to $397,779.
Attached property sales in April 2010 totalled 616, an increase of 3.7 per cent compared to the 594 sales in April 2009 and a 1.3 per cent increase from the 608 attached properties sold in April 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 16.4 per cent between April 2009 and 2010 to $502,399.

Source The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Home listings rise to start the spring season

A steady influx of new listings has helped create a balanced ‘typical spring’ housing market in the Greater Vancouver region.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 7,004 in March 2010. This represents a 60 per cent increase compared to March 2009 when 4,385 new units were listed, and a 52.1 per cent increase compared to February 2010 when 4,606 properties were listed on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®).
At 13,538, the total number of property listings on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) increased 19 per cent in March compared to last month, but remains 7.6 per cent below this time last year.
The total number of homes listed for sale on our MLS® is at its highest level in 10 months, which translates into more options and variety for those looking to buy during the traditionally busy spring period.
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 3,137 in March 2010, a 38.5 per cent increase compared to March 2009, a 4.7 per cent increase over March 2008, and a 12.4 per cent decrease compared to March 2007. The current figure also represents a 26.8 per cent increase compared to the 2,473 sales recorded in February 2010.
With a sales-to-listing ratio of 23 per cent, we see a healthy balance between buyer demand and seller supply in the marketplace.
Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 20.3 per cent to $584,435 from $485,845 in March 2009. This price is 2.8 per cent above the previous high point in the market in May 2008 when the residential benchmark price sat at $568,411.
Sales of detached properties in March 2010 reached 1,336, an increase of 49 per cent from the 897 detached sales recorded in March 2009 and a 19.7 per cent increase from the 1,116 units sold in March 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 23.3 per cent from March 2009 to $800,341, but declined 0.6 per cent compared to last month when the benchmark price was $800,796.
Sales of apartment properties in March 2010 reached 1,252, an increase of 28.3 per cent compared to the 976 sales in March 2009 and a decline of 8.6 per cent compared to the 1,370 sales in March 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 17.3 per cent from March 2009 to $395,507 and is up 1.2 per cent compared to last month when the benchmark price was $390,899.
Attached property sales in March 2010 totalled 549, an increase of 40.1 per cent compared to the 392 sales in March 2009 and a 7.4 per cent increase from the 511 attached properties sold in March 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 17.3 per cent between March 2009 and 2010 to $493,263, but declined 0.5 per cent compared to last month when the benchmark price was $495,496.

Source The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Home sales activity strong through February and the Olympic period

The Greater Vancouver housing market continued to experience strong demand from homebuyers and an increase in total property listings in a month where the eyes of the world were focused on the region.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,473 in February 2010, an increase of 67.1 per cent compared to February 2009 when 1,480 sales were recorded and a 28.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,923 sales recorded in January 2010.
More broadly, last month’s sales totals marked a 7.6 per cent decline compared to the 2,676 sales recorded in February 2008 and were 13.5 per cent behind February 2007 when 2,859 residential sales were recorded on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver.
Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 19.7 per cent to $581,911 from $486,054 in February 2009. This price is 2.4 per cent above the previous high point in the market in May 2008 when the residential benchmark price sat at $568,411.
“We don’t know at this point what long-term impact the Olympics will have on our housing market, but we do know that activity in our market remained steady through all of the excitement and distraction of the last few weeks.
In February, for example, 110 sales were recorded on the MLS® in downtown Vancouver. That’s higher than 2009 and slightly lower than the mid-2000s, which is consistent with data from the overall market. It’s too soon to say whether that’s an Olympic effect.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,606 in February 2010. This represents a 17.6 per cent increase compared to February 2009 when 3,916 new units were listed, and a 10.5 per cent decrease compared to January 2010 when 5,147 properties were listed on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver.
At 11,346, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 11 per cent in February compared to last month and declined 21 per cent from this time last year.
“Two months into 2010, we see the total number of homes listed for sale on the rise and demand in the market strong, but less frenzied than we saw in the latter part of 2009,” Russell said.
Sales of detached properties increased 67.5 per cent in February 2010 to 983 from the 587 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2009. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties increased 22.5 per cent from February 2009 to $800,796.
Sales of apartment properties in February 2010 increased 65.2 per cent to 1,074 compared to 650 sales in February 2009. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 17.3 per cent from February 2009 to $390,899.
Attached property sales in February 2010 are up 71.2 per cent to 416, compared with the 243 sales in February 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 16.2 per cent between Februarys 2009 and 2010 to $495,496.

Source The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Feds change borrowing requirements for government-backed mortgages

Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced this morning that homebuyers looking to qualify for a government-backed mortgage after April 19, 2010 will need to meet three new requirements. The changes revealed this morning include:

• Require that all borrowers meet the standards for a five-year fixed rate mortgage even if they choose a mortgage with a lower interest rate and shorter term.
• Lower the maximum amount Canadians can withdraw in refinancing their mortgages to 90 per cent from 95 per cent of the value of their homes.
• Require a minimum down payment of 20 per cent for government-backed mortgage insurance on non-owner-occupied properties purchased for speculation.

"There's no clear evidence of a housing bubble, but we're taking proactive, prudent and cautious steps today to help prevent one. Our Government is acting to help prevent Canadian households from getting overextended, and acting to help prevent some lenders from facilitating it," Minister Flaherty said in a press release.

Source The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Friday, February 5, 2010

Housing supply and demand reach closer alignment in January

Diverse selection and favourable interest rates continue to drive demand in the Greater Vancouver housing market.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,923 in January 2010, an increase of 152.4 per cent compared to January 2009 when 762 sales were recorded and a 23.5 per cent decline compared to the 2,515 sales recorded in December 2009.

In terms of historical perspective, January ranked as an average month for number of residential housing sales over the past decade, with higher sales in January 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2006.

Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 17.2 per cent to $573,241 from $489,007 in January 2009. This price is 0.8 per cent above the previous high point in the market in May 2008 when the residential benchmark price sat at $568,411.

Although home prices in the region have largely returned to their previous peaks, we still see a significant number of first-time and move-up buyers in the market, thanks to low interest rates and the diverse range of properties available today.

There is also closer alignment between supply and demand in today’s housing market. At 18 per cent, the sales-to-active listings ratio in January is approximately 10 per cent lower than we’ve seen in our market over the last six months.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,147 in January 2010. This represents a 39.1 per cent increase compared to January 2009 when 3,700 new units were listed, and a 139.1 per cent increase compared to December 2009 when 2,153 properties were listed on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver.

At 10,218, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 14 per cent in January compared to last month and declined 26 per cent from this time last year.
In January, sales of detached properties increased 141.4 per cent to 705 from the 292 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2009. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink® Housing Price Index, for detached properties increased 19.5 per cent from January 2009 to $788,499.

Sales of apartment properties in January 2010 increased 146.8 per cent to 891 compared to 361 sales in January 2009. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 15.2 per cent from January 2009 to $385,487.

Attached property sales in January 2010 are up 200 per cent to 327, compared with the 109 sales in January 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 13.4 per cent between January 2009 and 2010 to $482,478.